Thursday, April 23, 2009

RPT : Random Pricing Theory

This note illustrates a revolutionary pricing theory for assets particularly derivatives which depend so much on random behaviour of underlying market variables.
This is revolutionary in a sense that it has almost zero correlation with market movements. This however is a copyrighted theory and usage of this to price derivatives and structured products will be charged on a case by case basis.

Following is the theory

Consider a derivative say, a swap. We start with a guess of its price, Say X. Now we introduce random variables to converge the price to its fair value. The fairness is achieved by a total non-biasedness of the sampled data. We use a trinomial tree approach to price these securities. We also segregate the direction (up, down and no movement) from the quantification of the movement.

To achieve non-biasedness, we use parrots to sample. One parrot is used to determine the direction of movement and other to quantify the volatility. To know direction one parrot is used to toss a coin (teaching the parrot to toss a coin is achieved using another theory. Please refer appendix). Depending upon the outcome of the toss. Our sample space contains the following outcomes. { head, tail, standing coin}. We define a random variable C as follows

head = +1
tail = -1
standing coin = 0

Another parrot is used to determine the quantity of movement say Q. Now choosing the quantity can be a discrete or a continous process. For a discrete one we use a dice or a card. dice has lower number of outcomes so its volatility is lower.

For a continous one we can use a circle where the parrot runs around the circumference and depending upon the point where it stops the distance is calulated as the difference between the initial and final point. This distance is the random variable. We can have a multiplier to the distance to find the quantity of movement. The parrot either picks a card, tosses a dice or runs on a circle. This gives the quantity.

The ultimate movement is determined as follows. The final movement is

C*Q.

Hence the final price is

X + C*Q.

This experiment is repeated till both the parrots faint. Then the average of the prices is taken and this is the correct and fair price.

The above method is a generalized one. Care should be taken to choose parrots of only those region from where the security originates. Parrots can be shown a video of the market or stock exchange if you want to achieve some correlation to the market.

Addendums to follow

XantoZ

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Verbed-Nouns

OBAMAed Jobs
BUSHed Iraq and Afganistan
CLINTONed Interns
PALINed Russia
MAOed liberties
RAJUed accounts and balance-sheets
BOYLEd (social) reality
GABBERed dialogues

(c) santosh & ameya

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Shoeconomics

"No shoes thrown at me during my speech!!" fumes Joamon, the president of Daakland. He rants "This is the third time. Do people not care about me? You have no idea what this is doing to my popularity ratings man! There are no games in the internet about me! This is not just bad for me but also our country's economy". These were the outbursts after the address to the mass of jobless and houseless people.
Daakland has been hit very hard by the recession and economy is in ruins. So much so that either people dont have shoes to throw at their president or they have only one pair left.
But the president doesnt want to remain behind in the world stage. First Bush, the leader of the developed nations and then Jiabao, the leader of the developing nations have had the honour of utmost appreciation from the public. Not so with Joamon though. He vividly remembers the meeting in the UN with other country heads. They all boasted of token public appreciations in their own countries. He didnt want his country to fall behind.
"Arrange a talk show. I want it to be rigged."
------
Daakland Talk Show

"What do you think about the incident?' Talk-show Host
"I think it goes on to show the pinnacle of freedom people have nowadays" President.

Jack the first shoe-thrower was jailed. He was released on bail. He got the highest paid job and a hot wife after that.

To audience member " What do you think of the guy who did that?"
" Man that is easy money" quips Joe, the mechanic "if only I had some cheap shoes.."
--------------------
"Ben, did you see the interview yesterday?" Dave, the head of Kike shoe company
"Are you thinking what I am thinking?"
Ben replies " A new market segment, a new need"
Dave "Something to boost our sagging sales, may be"
Ben "Spot on"

The new Kike "Hurler". Available in all sizes, infants to oldies. Its light-weight And its dirt cheap. "Kike Shoe Finance" also provides easy loans to buy your own hurler.
Dave smiles "Shoe sales up 80 percent".
----
"Sorry sir, we have no vacancy for the next three days. All the auditoriums are booked for some speech or other" Jill , the PR of MNA Event management
"Now all ministers want to give speeches, even in non-election times" Jill says to her colleague
Colleague "More work but at least the company is making good money, my job's safe"
------
"Why are you changing the posters? Its a shooting training company aint it " Barbara to her husband"
"Dont worry! Am just repainting the gun to a shoe. Enrollments are more if there is a shoe. Dont you know anything" Husband retorts back
------
"Sir, your chances are better if you have thrown a shoe at any speaker or chief guest. The more the status of the guest, the more the bargaining power." a Jobsearch firm
----
A few quarters later
Daakland News "The number of jobless have gone down. Public spending has increased and it includes not just shoes. Economy seems to show signs of improvement."
----
UN Secret Meet
"Ladies and Gentlemen. As promised to Jack the shoe-thrower, we are gathered here to reward him. Our plan has succeeded. What the numerous bailouts could not do, the shoe did. Certainly ingenious. " UN head

2 Gunshots. Both Bush and Wen with guns.
Jack's body on the floor.
"Now the world will never know the greatest conspiracy theory that saved the world. He he ha ha.." Entire UN laughing

Sunday, February 01, 2009

Zamfir..The Pan Flutist


Pan Flute Music..I had never really explored this genre. Was always into Rock. A recent episode in Southpark showed some of this music. The soothing tone of this ancient instrument got me hooked. Some research over the internet and I got this CD by one of the pan flute virtuosos, Mr Gheorghe Zamfir. Not very sure about its origin, but essentially gives a strong Native American feel to it. Zamfir though is a Romanian. One listen to it and my restless mind and soul calms down. The music has a strong solitary vibe to it and interestingly it is not usually played along with other instruments. I put the CD on, lied down and closed my eyes. The disturbances around me died down. I got transported to this lone hill away from the population, the sun was setting down and my horse was tied to the tree beside me. My back rested on the trunk and I put my cowboy hat over my eyes. My silhouette against the dark red sun setting behind the hills was postcard perfect. I so longed the blissful solitude. The music caressed my ears smoothly like a cool breeze on my face, like a soft kiss of a maiden on my lips. I absorb the moment. I tried to grab it. It seemed it was fleeting away, for Sunday was fast ending and Monday was doubly fast approaching. I desperately tried to hold on to it, like the water in my fist. It left me but not before it had cooled my tired hands. The CD had finished. When I finally opened my eyes, the hill was gone, the horse was gone, the sun was gone and my tiredness, my restlessness was gone too. The sweetness remained, the bliss remained and so did the lingering not-so-vivid pictures. Thank you Zamfir




Unforgettable tracks
(1) The Lonely Shepherd
(2) Solitude
(3) Stranger on Shore
(4) Summer of Love
(5) Serenade

Friday, January 30, 2009

Greyer Shades of "RAM RAM SA"




"RAM RAM SA"
Choki Dhani is where you will get to know the purport of this phrase. A rajasthani gastronomic, folk and cultural export which is bound to enthrall a first time visitor. Legend has it that it was formed by a group of private cooks and entertainers of the king of Jaipur which incidentally also has the first Choki Dhani. Kidding!!..Some marwari may have started it definetely. Dont bother over it much.
So anyways a fine thursday when we did not have much work we planned to Choke ourselves with food and hence we planned on Choki Dhani. It has the indian style buffet where you are served till you pass out. 'Ram Ram sa' is what you are greeted with when you enter the Dhani or literally a village in rajasthani. You are applied a tilak and showered with flowers for you are about to battle it out inside with the awesome food and service. Spread over an area of about 4-5 acres in a traditional village setting viz. huts, machans, choupals, some cattle too, it does reminise you of an unseen rajasthani village. Its a traditional fair/mela kind of atmosphere replete with your regular Jadugars, karputlis, kalbeliyas, shooting arcades, mehndi etc. 'Ram Ram Sa' is what revebrates the air there. Whereever you go, you are greeted most politely and offered whatever they have on table. We started with some magic tricks by a very eloquent and proud jadugar.
Jadugar(excitedly): Ram Ram Sa!!. (meaning..welcome)
Us: Ram Ram Sa. Koi jaadu dikhao
Jadugar: Jaroor sahab
He claimed he had entertained some big shots. Really liked his dexterity. Some ten minutes of magic from things appearing and disappearing into thin air to some hardcore(??) stuff of coins raining from inside your undies. Guess, we really could use that kind of magic in these recessionary times. Finally
Jadugar(with shrunk eyes): Ram Ram Sa (meaning ...magic over)
Us: Ram Ram Sa (meaning.. Ok bye bye)
Jadugar (expecting eyes): Ram Ram Sa (meaning..some tip please)
We forked out some cash. Well he deserved it definetely
Next we proceeded to see some Kalbeliya dance. For the uninitiated it is a rajasthani folk dance combined with some tough gymnastic tricks with occasional fireworks (spewing kerosene) thrown in. Traditionally performed by a particular caste called Kalbeliyas, similar acts are a staple among banjars too. There was an entire family of three generations there with their setups and getups.
Entire family(almost shouting): Ram Ram Sa (meaning..please come)
Us(Obliged): Ram Ram Sa (meaning...sure! why not)
Artist: Sahab nach dekhiye
The Beautiful village girls dressed in colourful lehnga-cholis with miles high pots on their head, gyrated to dholaks and tamburaisque music. They did it all. Thumkas, danced on a tumbler, on broken glass pieces, on knives, picked a hundred rupee note using only their eyelids while bending over backwards. Really a music and colour riot. A treat to eyes.
Artists (panting): Ram Ram Sa. (meaning...show over)
Us (totally awed): Ram Ram Sa (meaning..No doubt India sucks in Olympics, All the talent is here rotting in Choki Dhani)
We tipped generously to the performers.
Artists: Ram Ram Sa. Ram Ram Sa (meaning..thank you thank you)
Next on our itinerary was a puppet show. Katputliyon ka khel. Some colorful bad ass dolls they were. A young boy was playing the dholak. He was soon joined by a singer.
Boy (gesturing): Ram Ram Sa (meaning ...please sit on the cot)
Us: Yeh bhi dekh lete hain
Neatly arranged dolls. One by one they were made to dance accompanied by catcalls.
However the show was kind of sullied by some foulmouthed patrons (women of kitty party variety) who kept criticizing the puppeteers.
Singer(to the women): Ram Ram Sa (meaning ...please excuse us).We kind of left it midway.
A mewar section was there too where on a raised platform a couple was playing some folky music. We arrived there and were greeted by the most unexpected host. Their 3-4 year old kids
Kids (in Unison): Ram Ram Sa
They pulled us to the porch and exhorted us to dance. Man that was the cutest persuasion I have ever seen in my life. Could not deny those little angels and we all started to shake our legs. I have to say it was the highlight of our visit. Also had a few bajra and makki ki rotis full of makhan. We proceeded to the snacks corner. Helped ourselves with some sumptuous kachoris and chat. Next one colleague wished to know his future and engaged a fortune-teller while I enjoyed a headmassage. After somemore hobnobbing, we decided to call upon the dining hall.
One big thali, five bowls and five or six attendants. Need one ask for more.
Attendants: Ram Ram Sa (meaning..get ready for dinner of your lifetime)
Us: Ram Ram Sa (meaning..how do you tackle all these fellows)
Item after item followed. Starting from Churan, dal baati, curry, dal sabzi, assorted breads to jalebi and chaaz. Delicious fare..only too much at one sitting With pagdi on our heads like a sword we had no other option but to push food down our throat. Somehow we managed to get ourselves up
Attendants: Ram Ram Sa, Ram Ram Sa, Ram Ram Sa (meaning...Tip, Tip, Tip and more Tip)
Us: Ram Ram Sa, Ram Ram Sa (meaning..how will we go home ..ab to Ram Bharose)
After a few minutes of rest,a paan and a big belly we all bade adieu to choki Dhani..
In retrospect it was a great evening, a chance to feel like royalty in a city where you keep getting pushed around all the time, a chance to know your culture and above all a chance to understand that words dont have a single meaning, they are not either black or white, they are not binary, they depend on the speaker, their expectations and their frustrations, their dreams and their failures, their pride and their humility, their treachery and their honesty, the myriad of human feelings and emotions which is behind every word and we hopelessly expect to find the right shade in this limitless canvas by an evening visit, a few tips and a blog.
Till then
Ram Ram Sa (dont know the meaning.........)



PS: Some Facts for Choki Dhani Mumbai
Reach: Kalyan station (w). Auto to Choki dhani at Bhiwandi bypass road
Cost: Rs 400/- per adult
Phone: +912522647074

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Mahuli (June 2008)

Mahuli


My third trip to Mahuli. Friends come and go but the place still remains my favourite getaway during rainy days. All the three times I had different company, but the route was the same, the stream was the same, the temple was the same and peak was the same too. I had been bugging my busy (I am sure they pretend) friends for quite sometime now. Finally they agreed. A little bit of shopping for booze and snacks the Saturday evening at DMart made sure our lungs will keep firing for the trek the next day. Early morning we boarded the local to Asangaon from Mulund. A quick but expensive autorickshaw ride brought us to the base camp( pardon my exaggerations but this is my Mt Everest). An half hour climb and all of us were panting our ass out. Man I have grown old. Regular smoke breaks werent helping our stamina either but old habits for old people die hard. Nevermind, slowly and steadily we did reach the summit (took us about 4-5 hrs). There were some scary moments/slips but we lived to tell the tale. So what some ten groups overtook us and three of them even returned before we reached up there, but our spirits(pun intended) were high and we were high too. The summit was worth it. We picked a distant rock and parked ourselves there. Finished our booze and gave rest to our lungs. We explored and admired the fort the marathas had built up there. Man how did they do it. No wonder the enemies never cared to take it. We returned by evening. It rained on the way down and I did not like my ass get wet. There was a sense of accomplishment that we were still fit for the adventure, however the reality dawned the next morning when I woke up with a tremendous all body ache. May be I should do it more often to get used to it or completely stop..Nahh... will go again..may be with a different set of friends..
Adios